Mass shootings remain one of the most pressing issues in the United States today. Public debates often highlight specific incidents, especially school shootings or high-profile cases, but less attention is given to the broader patterns across the country. To better understand the scope and characteristics of this crisis, I analyzed data from the Gun Violence Data Hub covering the period from January 2014 to August 2025.
This dataset defines a mass shooting as any incident where four or more victims are shot in one location. The data covers 51 states or jurisdictions (including Washington D.C.), providing a nationwide picture of the problem.
Using the R programming language, I created visualizations and ran statistical summaries to uncover trends. The results reveal alarming insights about the frequency, geography, and nature of mass shootings in the U.S.
Overall Numbers of Mass Shootings
From January 2014 to August 2025, the U.S. recorded:
5,468 mass shooting incidents
5,828 people killed (5,483 were victims, the rest suspects)
23,097 people injured (22,857 were victims, the rest suspects)
The deadliest single incident in this dataset, the 2017 Las Vegas Shooting, killed 60 people and injured 439.
On average, each mass shooting resulted in:
1 death (1.07 to be exact)
4 injuries (4.22 to be exact)
These averages may sound small, but when multiplied across thousands of incidents, the human toll is staggering.
What Happens to the Suspects?
One surprising insight is that in the majority of cases, suspects are not caught.
57.6% of incidents (3,152 cases) ended with no suspects arrested, injured, or killed.
When suspects are present:
85% are arrested (3,320 suspects)
8.8% are killed (345 suspects)
6.2% are injured (240 suspects)
This means that in more than half of mass shootings, law enforcement does not apprehend or identify a suspect at the time of the report. This raises major concerns about accountability, justice, and ongoing public safety.
A study suggests that the mass shootings whose suspects are uncaught may often be non-rampage events such as gang disputes, drive-bys, or domestic incidents. While suspects are initially recorded as uncaught, many may be identified and apprehended later.
Trends Over Time
The data shows a gradual increase in mass shootings year by year. One notable acceleration occurs in May 2020, which may align with the broader social and economic stresses of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Another important trend is seasonality:
Peak months: June and July
Secondary peak: October and November
Lowest month: February
This seasonal pattern suggests that social behaviors—such as gatherings, events, or warmer weather—may influence when mass shootings occur.
Which States Are Most Affected?
When looking at the total number of mass shootings, three states stand out:
1. Illinois – 524 incidents
2. California – 471 incidents
3. Texas – 387 incidents
When normalized by monthly averages, the ranking stays the same:
Illinois: 4.19 incidents per month
California: 3.51 incidents per month
Texas: 3.07 incidents per month
This shows that Illinois, particularly Chicago, plays an outsized role in national statistics.
Cities and Counties with the Highest Numbers
At the city or county level, the differences become even more striking:
Chicago, Illinois – 382 incidents
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania – 175 incidents
Other cities/counties – fewer than 100 incidents each
Chicago is clearly an outlier, with more than double the number of incidents compared to the next city.
Characteristics of Mass Shootings
The dataset also includes descriptive information about incidents. While many words are generic (e.g., “victims,” “shot”), some recurring terms provide insight:
“Party,” “funeral,” “wedding” – suggest shootings often occur at social gatherings.
“Street,” “car” – hint at drive-by shootings or incidents in public areas.
“Child” – highlights the tragic involvement of young victims.
“Suicide” – shows that some mass shootings are linked to self-inflicted gun deaths.
This mix suggests that not all mass shootings fit the high-profile image of school or workplace shootings. Many happen at personal events, community gatherings, or in public spaces.
Time of Day Patterns
When do mass shootings happen?
The data shows clear peaks around midnight, especially at 11 PM and 1 AM. The lowest number of incidents occurs at 7 AM.
This reinforces the connection to parties and nightlife, where tensions may escalate in late-night hours. Interestingly, this contradicts the common perception that mass shootings are most likely to happen in schools or workplaces during the day. In reality, many incidents never make national headlines.
Victim Counts by State
When focusing on the number of victims rather than the number of incidents, the ranking changes:
Texas: 560 victims
California: 523 victims
Illinois: 396 victims
Florida: 367 victims
This suggests that while Illinois has more incidents, Texas and California tend to have larger-scale shootings with more victims per incident.
Victim Counts by County
At the county level, the pattern is similar to incident counts:
Chicago, Illinois: 242 victims
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania: 119 victims
Houston, Texas: 106 victims
Again, Chicago and Philadelphia dominate, consistent with their states’ high rankings.
Business and Location Insights
When examining business locations of shootings, the data does not show one overwhelming hotspot. Instead, incidents are spread across various types of establishments, with each differing by only a handful of cases.
However, one location stands out: gas stations. This aligns with the frequent mentions of “car” in incident reports, suggesting many shootings occur near or around vehicles.
Key Takeaways
Based on the analysis, here are the most important insights:
1. Most suspects go uncaught: Over 57% of incidents have no recorded suspect outcomes.
2. Geography matters: Illinois, California, Texas, and Pennsylvania—especially cities like Chicago and Philadelphia—are hotspots.
3. Timing patterns: Shootings often peak around midnight, aligning with parties and nightlife.
4. Not just headline events: Many mass shootings happen at private gatherings, on streets, or at gas stations—not just schools or workplaces.
5. Victim counts differ from incident counts: Texas and California produce the highest number of victims, even if Illinois has more overall incidents.
Final Thoughts
The U.S. continues to face a severe and complex crisis when it comes to mass shootings. While public attention often shifts from one headline to the next, the data shows a broader, consistent pattern: mass shootings are frequent, deadly, and unevenly distributed across states and cities.
Understanding these patterns is essential for policymakers, law enforcement, and communities who want to reduce gun violence. By looking beyond the headlines, we can see that the problem is not only about rare, high-profile events but also about thousands of smaller incidents that never make the national news but still devastate families and communities.
Until the underlying causes are addressed, the trend lines suggest the crisis will only continue to grow.
Additional graphs
Featured photo by Salah Ait Mokhtar on Unsplash.